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Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier (18-4) $8,700 vs. “Irish Joe” Joseph Duffy (14-1) $10,700
Opening Odds: Poirier +145 / Duffy -185
Current Odds: Poirier +205 / Duffy -245

Poirier is a top 20 Lightweight. His most impressive win was a 1st round submission of Max Holloway three years ago. His four losses have been to Conor McGregor, Cub Swanson, Chan Sung Jung, and Danny Castillo. He has a great camp over at American Top Team. He’s well-rounded and great at finishing fights. I think he has a decent shot at the upset, so at $8,700 I think he’s a great option.

Duffy will be the hometown favorite in the Main Event. 12 of his 14 wins have come within the 1st round. He has a great submission game, especially his Triangle & Rear Naked Chokes. His most notable wins were 1st round stoppages of Conor McGregor and Norman Parke five years ago. Even though he’s a premium at $10,700, I think he’s worth having a decent amount of exposure to.

Ben Rothwell (35-9) $8,500 vs. Stipe Miocic (13-2) $10,900
Opening Odds: Rothwell +220 / Miocic -300
Current Odds: Rothwell +275 / Miocic -335

Rothwell is a top 10 Heavyweight with an impressive resume. 28 of his 35 wins have come within the 1st round. He’s on a three-fight win streak over Matt Mitrione, Alistair Overeem, and Brandon Vera. At $8,500 I think he’s great value with a high ceiling, despite being a near 3:1 underdog.

Miocic is also a top 10 Heavyweight. He is heavy handed and coming off an impressive 5th round stoppage of fellow top 10 Heavyweight Mark Hunt (in Australia, no less). I expect this fight to be a slugfest with a lot of blood. $10,900 is a lot to pay, but Miocic could easily get you the 100+ points you look for out of each fighter.

“Stormin” Norman Parke (20-4-1) $10,800 vs. Reza “Mad Dog” Madadi (13-3) $8,600
Opening Odds: Parke -210 / Madadi +160
Current Odds: Parke -280 / Madadi +240

Parke has been on my radar for a while now. He’s coming off back-to-back Split Decision losses to Francisco Trinaldo and Gleison Tibau. He’s a submission expert with a nasty Guillotine and RNC. He’s seven years younger than Madadi. At $10,800 I’m not sure how much I’ll have of him. I’d like to pay closer to $10,200, especially considering the fact that Madadi is no slouch on the ground himself.

Madadi last fought two and a half years ago – an impressive 3rd round submission over a very game Michael Johnson. He lacks knockout power, but he’s got a great submission game. His three losses have been by Decision. Stylistically, Parke presents Madadi’s toughest challenge to date. I think Madadi stands a good chance to make it to a decision, so at $8,600, I might consider a flier on him.

Darren Till (13-0) $9,300 vs. Nicolas “Sharpshooter” Dalby (14-0) $10,100
Opening Odds: Till +110 / Dalby -150
Current Odds: Till +115 / Dalby -135

Till is eight years younger than Dalby. He’s a heavy handed Welterweight without a blemish on his record. Given the fact that this is essentially a pick ’em, I like his price at $9,300.

Dalby is well-rounded, but he’s faced relatively weak competition. He’s not great at finishing fights – only 50% of his wins have been stoppages. You always want a guy who’s good at stopping fights, so I’m not really interested, especially at $10,100.

Louis “Da Last Samurai” Smolka (9-1) $9,800 vs. Patrick “The Hooligan” Holohan (12-1-1)$9,600
Opening Odds: Smolka -130 / Holohan -110
Current Odds: Smolka -115 / Holohan -105

Smolka is a top 10 Flyweight from Hawaii. Typically I try to use heavier fighters in my lineups. If I take a Flyweight I’d like him to be a big favorite. Smolka’s sole loss was a Split Decision loss to Chris Cariaso. He has a Brown belt in Judo and Karate. He’s not particularly cheap at $9,800, so I’ll probably fade him.

Holohan is from Dublin, Ireland, so he will be the fan favorite. He lacks knockout power, but he’s got a solid ground game. His biggest threats are the Triangle and Rear Naked Chokes. His only loss was a decision loss to Chris Kelades just over a year ago. I expect this fight to go to a decision, so I will probably fade Holohan as well.

Mickael “Ragnar” Lebout (14-4-1) $8,400 vs. “Braveheart” Stevie Ray (18-5) $11,000
Opening Odds: Lebout +190 / Ray -270
Current Odds: Lebout +400 / Ray -500

Lebout will be the card’s biggest underdog. He’s won 7 of his last 8 fights. Sadly, I bet against him three months ago when he upset Teemu Packalen by Unanimous Decision. With a 50% stoppage rate, he’s not great at finishing fights. He doesn’t have knockout power, but he has a solid armbar. Even though he’s a big discount at $8,400, I can’t see him winning this fight, so I’m going to fade him.

Ray is a nasty Scot on a four-fight win streak. He’s well rounded, but somewhat susceptible to submissions. I expect him to finish Lebout with a 1st round knockout. He’s the most expensive fighter on this card, but I think he’ll be worth every penny.

Jon “The Heat” Delos Reyes (8-4) $9,400 vs. Neil “2 Tap” Seery (15-11) $10,000
Opening Odds: Reyes +145 / Seery -185
Current Odds: Reyes +135 / Seery -155

Reyes is eight years younger than Seery. All of his wins have been 1st or 2nd round stoppages. I expect him to come out fast and aggressive. I think he’s better than his record implicates. At $9,400 and only a small underdog, I think he’s a great play.

Seery is a mediocre Irish fighter who’s surprisingly good at finishing fights. That said, he hasn’t had a stoppage win in over two years. At $10,000 I’m not really that interested, but I might take him as a random flier in one or two lineups as a “just in case..”

Krzysztof Jotko (15-1) $9,700 vs. Scott Askham (13-1) $9,700
Opening Odds: Jotko -110 / Askham -130
Current Odds: Jotko +115 / Askham -135

Jotko is a bad ass Polish fighter with an intimidating staredown. He strung together 14 wins in a row before being submitted in the 2nd round by Magnus Cedenblad. Jotko only has a 40% stoppage rate, so he’s not a great play on paper, but I think this fight could go either way. I’m not going to have a ton of exposure, but I’ll throw him in a lineup or two.

Dating back to his Amateur career, Askham won 18 fights in a row before losing a decision to Magnus Cedenblad. Askham is a heavy handed Middleweight with very few holes in his game. I think it’s hard to go wrong putting him in your lineup for only $9,700.

Aisling “Ais The Bash” Daly (15-6) $9,900 vs. Ericka Almeida (7-1) $9,500
Opening Odds: Daly -125 / Almeida -115
Current Odds: Daly -130 / Almeida +110

Daly is coming off a Unanimous Decision loss to Randa Markos. In fact, 5 of her 6 losses were by decision. She trains at SBG Ireland, one of the top camps in Europe. She has a nasty armbar, as well as knockout power. At $9,900 I think she’s a great play, despite being a Strawweight.

Almeida lacks knockout power, but has a great ground game. This comes as no surprise, as she trains with Team Nogueira. This will be her toughest opponent by far. If I didn’t think Daly was going to win the fight I’d say Almeida is a fine play. However, given the fact that Daly’s never been submitted and Almeida doesn’t have knockout power, I’m going to fade Almeida.

Cathal “The Punisher” Pendred (17-3-1) $8,800 vs. Tom Breese (8-0) $10,600
Opening Odds: Pendred -105 / Breese -135
Current Odds: Pendred +205 / Breese -245

Pendred also trains at SBG Ireland. He’s coming off a Split Decision loss to John Howard. Before then he was on an eleven-fight win streak. He only has a 41% stoppage rate, but I expect this to a great fight, nonetheless. I like Pendred at $8,800, but it’s a little scary that he went from -105 to +205 in less than a week..

Breese is an up-and-comer who trains at Tristar Gym, one of Canada’s best. Including his Amateur career, he’s a perfect 15-0 with merely two decision wins. His biggest threat is the RNC, as well as a great Triangle Choke. For a modest $10,600 count me in.

Darren “The Damage” Elkins (18-5) $10,200 vs. “The Hammer” Robert Whiteford (12-2) $9,200
Opening Odds: Elkins -180 / Whiteford +140
Current Odds: Elkins -145 / Whiteford +125

Elkins has a great record, especially considering the level of competition he’s fought against. He’s coming off a Unanimous Decision loss to top 20 Featherweight Hacran Dias nine months ago. I expect Elkins to win by Unanimous Decision, so I’m not too excited to pay $10,200 for him. I’ll have limited exposure to him on my cards.

Whiteford is heavy handed for a Featherweight. His last defeat was a year ago to Jim Hettes. He’s a one-dimensional striker with no ground game. If Elkins is smart he’ll take Whiteford down and grind out a boring win or possibly submit him. $9,200 is tempting, but I think there are better spots on this card.

“The Fightin’ Texas Aggie” Bubba Bush (8-2) $10,500 vs. “Soldier Boy” Garreth McLellan (12-3) $8,900
Opening Odds: Bush -245 / McLellan +175
Current Odds: Bush -260 / McLellan +220

Bush hasn’t fought for a year and three months, so he might be a bit rusty. That said, he’s a solid favorite with an 87% stoppage rate (albeit over soft competition). I think he’s worth mixing into some lineups.

McLellan is one of the better fighters coming out of South Africa. He’s a submission expert with a great RNC. He’s a talented fighter, but doesn’t have the same level of training, which is probably why he’s such a big dog. He has a 92% stoppage rate and only costs $8,900, so I’ll probably put him into a few lineups.